Bandits’ Peace Deal in Nigeria: A Fragile Hope

Notorious bandits have struck a peace deal with the Nigerian government in Katsina State, following mediation by community leaders in Hayin Gada, Faskari LGA. The unprecedented truce was brokered with Isiya ‘Kwashé’ Garwa, one of the country’s most feared bandit leaders.”

Garwa, listed among the Nigerian military’s 19 most-wanted terrorist/bandit leaders, arrived armed but offered to halt raids on villages and release abducted hostages in exchange for free movement and development in Fulani areas.

Garwa hails from Kamfanin Daudawa village in Faskari, according to security analysts, 

has long been linked to killings, kidnappings and raids across forest belts in Katsina and neighbouring states

Videos from the meeting show Garwa condemning the “stereotyping” of Fulani herders as criminals while warning that violence would continue unless the government addressed alleged injustices.

Observers say the latest bandits’ peace deal in Nigeria is not unusual, echoing a similar episode in June 2025 when Ado Aleru, a wanted bandit kingpin, attended a peace session in Danmusa LGA. Despite being on the security watchlist, Aleru addressed traditional leaders and military officers to discuss ending clashes between herders and farmers.”

Both Garwa’s and Aleru’s public appearances have sparked a mix of hope and outrage. Some villagers greeted the initiatives as a chance to restore calm, recalling years of terror at the hands of armed gangs.

But critics, including civil society and security experts, see a troubling pattern: the state seemingly treating armed criminals as negotiating partners rather than enemies.

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Bandits’ Peace Deal in Nigeria: Examining the Risks

Security analysts warn that these truces carry serious risks.

In a statement, the Citizens for Equity and Justice Initiative (CEJI) denounced the peace talks as a “moral collapse of governance,” noting that

allowing armed, wanted men to address officials freely is “a complete betrayal of the Nigerian people

CEJI’s president warned flatly,

You do not negotiate with terrorists in the open… when they remain armed, wanted, and unrepentant. It is a dangerous precedent that delegitimises state authority and emboldens violent actors.

Observers say such meetings risk sending a message: that violence pays.

• Undermining the Rule of Law: By treating gang leaders as stakeholders, the government risks normalising criminality. In past cases across Katsina and Zamfara, bandits who briefly promised peace later

regrouped and expanded their reach, sometimes collecting informal “taxes” from locals even during truces.

As one former governor ruefully admitted about an earlier amnesty deal,

Bandits fooled me twice… I regret trusting them. I will not do it again..

Security experts caution that without genuine leverage, dialogue becomes a “delusion,” inviting militants to “test the limits” of state resolve. This normalisation of criminality could have profound long-term implications for the rule of law in Nigeria.

• Abandoning Victims: Thousands of villagers have been terrorised by banditry, slaughtered during raids, or kidnapped for ransom.

Conflict data show over 13,000 Nigerians killed in bandit attacks since 2010. Yet the new deals contain no provisions for justice or compensation. Victims’ families, some still held captive, see no restitution.

The CEJI noted that officials who once condemned

“peace deals with blood-stained warlords” are now “offering a platform [to them]… an affront to every citizen who has lost a loved one to bandit violence”.

Without centring victims and accountability, peace pacts risk being viewed as rewards for terror rather than steps toward justice. This abandonment of victims is a cause for concern and should be a key consideration in evaluating the peace deals.

• Emboldening Armed Groups: Analysts warn that open negotiation may encourage other gangs. If terror tactics win a seat at the table, new groups might adopt the same playbook.

As CEJI put it, dealing publicly with terrorists “emboldens violent actors”.

In fact, Katsina authorities only agreed to talks after the bandits themselves initiated outreach, a shift that Governor Radda acknowledged was

“locally-made, community-owned”, but also noted had restored calm in some areas.

Critics caution that the government’s making peace deals with bandits as a shortcut could fatally undercut long-term security efforts. This potential emboldening of armed groups is a serious concern and should be carefully considered in the context of the peace deals with bandits

• Political Optics vs. Lasting Security: The truce comes as Nigeria gears up for its 2027 elections, prompting suspicions it is designed more for optics than effect.

Short-term dips in violence can polish the government’s image, but experts point out that similar accords have unravelled once media attention faded.

In neighbouring Kaduna, for example, state officials reluctantly signed a peace accord in late 2024 after rejecting negotiations for years, only for clashes to resume later.

With political pressure mounting for visible stability, some worry that these deals are “façades” of peace. Unless backed by sustained operations, veteran security analysts argue, any lull may be temporary and illusory.

The potential consequences of these deals on the 2027 elections, including the risk of violence being used for political gain, should be a cause for concern.

• Enforcement and Accountability Gaps: So far, no precise monitoring or prosecution framework accompanies the pacts. The Arab News (AFP) report on a June 2025 Katsina meeting noted that bandits pledged to renounce violence and even surrendered weapons.

Still, authorities reminded Nigerians that previous truces were broken once hostilities resumed. With no transparent enforcement mechanism, sceptics say these agreements risk becoming symbolic gestures.

Indeed, communities still report bandit harassment even after deals are struck. Without reliable oversight, a verbal promise may prove worthless once patrols withdraw.

• Wider Security Implications: Katsina’s approach may influence tactics nationwide. Banditry is a national emergency: since 2018, attacks have surged from a few hundred per year to over a thousand, displacing over a million people in the northwest.

Crucially, Nigeria’s bandits, though not ideologically driven, have growing ties with jihadist factions. Some analysts warn that negotiating with such groups could unwittingly aid criminals who fund terror.

If bandit chiefs see political power as attainable through violence, the entire region’s security could worsen. As the UN and human rights organisations have noted, treating armed gangs simply as negotiating partners weakens the rule of law and undercuts broader counterinsurgency efforts.

The potential impact of these deals on the broader counterinsurgency efforts in Nigeria, including the risk of diverting resources from the fight against jihadist factions, should be a cause for concern.

Bandits’ Peace Deal in Nigeria: Risks, History, and Key Lessons

Katsina’s recent deals echo earlier peace efforts. In June, AFP reported that a dozen bandit leaders met local officials in Danmusa, Katsina, and publicly renounced violence.

The bandits even surrendered dozens of weapons and freed hostages as a “goodwill” gesture. But officials also cautioned that criminals had repeatedly “reneged” on prior agreements. Indeed, Katsina’s governor himself had previously lamented being “fooled” by bandit oaths, a reference to the failed truces in neighbouring Zamfara from 2019 to 2021.

From 2019 onward, several northwest states experimented with local peace pacts. Analysts observed that such accords often brought only brief respite; bandit groups quickly exploited them to regroup.

A Premium Times investigation noted that similar community-brokered deals in 2019–2021 promptly collapsed when the armed gangs returned to the forests, while many villagers continued paying levies to criminals despite official claims of peace.

In short, experience suggests these initiatives can buy time for bandits rather than dismantle their networks.

Nigeria’s experience with Boko Haram also offers a cautionary backdrop: Abuja has long maintained that ideological insurgents will only surrender through military pressure and radicalisation of the rank-and-file, not by negotiations.

Many security experts worry that treating bandits as mere criminals to be appeased might blur that line. As one counterterrorism commentator noted, successful engagement with violent non-state actors typically follows sustained pressure

“dialogue deployed not as a substitute for strength, but as its extension”. In contrast, Nigeria’s governors appear to be negotiating from a perceived weakness, which history suggests is “strategic suicide”.

Unless the government now pairs dialogue with firm enforcement and genuine justice measures, critics warn, these pacts will yield only fragile quiet.

For victims of banditry, the truce feels like an empty victory; the warlords remain free, while ordinary Nigerians pay the price in trauma and fear. As CEJI bluntly warned, without accountability for crimes, such deals risk “normalising terrorists as stakeholders” and further eroding public trust.

Nigeria’s fragile northwest may enjoy a few weeks of relative calm, but many see it as “peace on paper,” not peace for the people.

Sources: Reports from Nigerian and international media, as well as analysis (AFP/Arab News, Premium Times Nigeria, Daily Post Nigeria, Vanguard, BusinessDay), have been utilised. These include security expert comments and official statements on the Katsina bandit negotiation

• Criticisms follow Katsina, Zamfara Govts’ peace meeting with bandits – Vanguard News. https://www.vanguardngr.com/2025/06/criticisms-follow-katsina-zamfara-govts-peace-meeting-with-bandits/
• Nigeria’s banditry crisis and negotiation dynamics – Businessday NG. https://businessday.ng/life/article/nigerias-banditry-crisis-and-negotiation-dynamics/?amp
• Northwest Nigeria Has a Banditry Problem. What’s Driving It? – IPI Global Observatory. https://theglobalobservatory.org/2024/05/northwest-nigeria-has-a-banditry-problem-whats-driving-it/
• Nigerian state signs peace pact with criminal gangs: official | Arab News. https://www.arabnews.com/node/2604733/%7B%7B